Date: October 03, 2025
📈 Market Signals
Prices remain under pressure, but integrity‑linked credits (newer vintages, CCP‑aligned projects) are holding up better than older avoidance credits. Transaction volumes contracted ~25% in 2024, while retirements stayed elevated (~182 million tCO₂e), indicating demand is concentrated on higher‑quality supply. Issuances and oversupply of legacy credits continue to influence pricing dynamics.
⚖️ Policy & Regulation
ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) and other standard‑setting moves are tightening the definition of ‘high integrity’ credits — this will likely phase out weaker methodologies and reallocate value to credible credits. VCMI’s Scope‑3 Action Code is also reshaping how companies can responsibly use credits for value‑chain emissions. These policy shifts raise short‑term transition risks but improve long‑term market credibility.
🌳 Projects & Supply
Verra’s updated ARR methodology (VM0047 v1.1) and other methodological improvements are changing project design and MRV expectations for nature‑based projects. Pilots in agriculture (e.g., NABARD’s Karnataka program) show promise for farmer engagement but highlight implementation & payment delays that can undermine social trust. Technological MRV (satellite, AI) is becoming central to verify additionality and permanence at scale.
🏢 Corporate Demand
Corporate buyers are increasingly selective: many now prefer CCP‑aligned credits and clear disclosure under frameworks like VCMI’s Scope‑3 Code. Demand is shifting from ‘cheap neutrality’ toward strategic, science‑aligned purchasing and forward offtakes — buyers are using credits to complement, not replace, rapid decarbonization.
🔮 Thought Leadership
Analysts argue the VCM will undergo a ‘cleansing’ period: low‑quality supply will fall away, volumes may drop in the short term, but the market should recover as higher integrity restores buyer trust. Offtake financing is expanding, helping nascent removals and high‑quality nature projects scale by guaranteeing future revenue.
📰 Media & Public Narrative
Media coverage remains skeptical, often highlighting risks of greenwashing and over‑crediting. Positive coverage focuses on projects with demonstrable co‑benefits (biodiversity, community livelihoods) or genuine removal technologies. The narrative matters — reputational risk is a strong demand signal.
👀 What to Watch Next Week
Key signals to monitor: additional ICVCM/CCP approvals (especially for engineered removals), new MRV tools or registry upgrades, corporate Q3/Q4 disclosures on offset strategy, and any large offtake announcements that indicate buyer appetite for high‑integrity removals.
Sources (with date accessed)
Market Signals
– Ecosystem Marketplace — SOVCM 2025 overview & analysis: https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/sovcm-2025-finds-the-voluntary-carbon-market-in-transition-demand-holding-steady-as-turnover-stabilizes/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– Core Markets — Global Environmental Markets Report (May 2025): https://coremarkets.co/insights/global-environmental-markets-report-may-2025 (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– Ecosystem Marketplace — SOVCM 2025 PDF: https://3298623.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/3298623/SOVCM%202025/Ecosystem%20Marketplace%20State%20of%20the%20Voluntary%20Carbon%20Market%202025.pdf (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
Policy & Regulation
– ICVCM — Core Carbon Principles (CCP): https://icvcm.org/core-carbon-principles/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– VCMI — Scope 3 Action Code of Practice: https://vcmintegrity.org/scope-3-action/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– Reuters — carbon credit standards approval and ICVCM coverage: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/carbon-credit-standards-approval-extended-98-market-2024-05-02/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
Projects & Supply
– Verra — VM0047 ARR methodology (v1.1) / minor revision: https://verra.org/verra-publishes-minor-revision-of-arr-methodology-vm0047/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– ClimateFocus — First Half 2025 VCM Review and Outlook: https://climatefocus.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/First-Half-2025-VCM-Review-and-Outlook.pdf (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– Times of India / NABARD pilot — Karnataka mango farmers carbon pilot: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/with-a-pilot-nabard-taps-into-carbon-credit-market-in-karnataka/articleshow/122955955.cms (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
Corporate Demand
– VCMI — Scope 3 Action Code of Practice (demand implications): https://vcmintegrity.org/scope-3-action/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– Carbon Pulse — market reporting and buyer trends: https://carbon-pulse.com/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
Thought Leadership
– Ecosystem Marketplace — SOVCM 2025 analysis: https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/sovcm-2025-finds-the-voluntary-carbon-market-in-transition-demand-holding-steady-as-turnover-stabilizes/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– ClimateFocus — First Half 2025 Review: https://climatefocus.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/First-Half-2025-VCM-Review-and-Outlook.pdf (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
Media & Public Narrative
– The Guardian — coverage on market valuation and critique: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/31/market-value-of-carbon-offsets-drops-61-aoe (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– Reuters — ICVCM and standard-setter coverage: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/carbon-credit-standards-approval-extended-98-market-2024-05-02/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
Watchlist
– ICVCM — recent approvals & updates: https://icvcm.org/integrity-council-approves-six-carbon-dioxide-removal-methodologies/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– Verra — ICVCM approvals and VM0047 page: https://verra.org/icvcm-approves-verras-afforestation-reforestation-and-revegetation-methodology/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
– Core Markets — monthly environmental markets reports: https://coremarkets.co/insights/ (Accessed: 03 October 2025)
